| 作者 |
 oil, China and US--reflection when oil hits $73. |
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| 所跟贴 |
美国会不会打伊朗? -- 筋斗云 - (9 Byte) 2006-4-23 周日, 18:35 (385 reads) |
parisparis
头衔: 海归少将
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2004/09/04
文章: 1996
海归分: 276207
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作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
1. Iranian president will not be replaced during Iranian internal struggles.
2. Bush still keep its hawk team, which include Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney.
3. US economy stablilize and does not face serious downturn.
4. Replicans survived the mid-term election in November and Democrats can not create too many hurdles for them.
Iran, the former close friend of US gov, now controls a chunk of oil reserve and is penetrating Iraq day by day. US may lose the control over the southern Iraq, where the rich Iraq oil wells are located.
Do not worry about China, France, Germany and UK. France, Germany and UK will stand firmly around US because they understand the ambition and the threat of Iranian nuclear weapon program. China is a free rider and coward: China needs stable and not expensive oil to sustain its growth, but is also jealous of the global dominance of US. So it will create some noise, but finally back off and stand on the side of US.
Iran is the home to the most ancient (with written languages and history) civilization, actually older than the Chinese. You need to talk to those Iranians to understand their pride in their history, culture and their misguided belief in their destiny to be a superpower.
Iran's population growth(with many young male men, but limited jobs) and poor economy are pushing this nation on a way to confrontation. Its president is using diplomatic valve to fend off domestic trouble.
Iranians, on average, are people who believe in power, but not negotiation and compromise. Chinese do not understand them well because these two are nations of very different national characteristics.
作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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