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安氏案例分析(投行系列,风电系列):高盛21亿出售地平线风能公司,年投资回报率31.14%,风电企业是如何估价的? |
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安普若 [博客] [个人文集]
头衔: 海归元勋 声望: 大师 性别: 加入时间: 2004/02/21 文章: 26038 来自: 中国美国的飞机上 海归分: 4196257
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作者:安普若 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
安氏案例分析(投行系列,风电系列):高盛21亿出售地平线风能公司,年投资回报率31.14%,风电企业是如何估价的?
概要:高盛于2005年夏天买下地平线风能公司(Horizon Wind Energy),2007年3月以21.5亿美元卖给了葡萄牙能源公司(EDP),两年的时间,平均每年的年投资回报率为31.14%。交易是在今年第三季度完成的。
今年第三季度,全美国大部分大的投资银行因受次贷危机的影响整体收益大减,比如摩根士丹利,而高盛第三财季利润猛增79%,这主要得益于对地平线风能公司的投资收益以及抵押贷款业务营收的大幅攀升。地平线风能公司(Horizon Wind Energy)的出售为高盛带来了9亿美元的收益。
其后,高盛加大了对风电领域的投资,这包括高盛对北美的诺德风电(Nordic Windpower)公司的投资(2007年10月1日消息)
平线风能公司的历史
Horizon Wind Energy History
* In 1998, the father and son team, Selim and Michael Zilkha, purchased one half of a small Dallas-ba<x>sed wind development company called International Wind.
* In 2000 the Zilkha’s bought out International Wind and renamed the company Zilkha Renewable Energy.
* In the summer of 2005 Zilkha Renewable Energy was acquired by Goldman Sachs, the company’s name was changed to Horizon Wind Energy.
Q: Why does Goldman Sachs want to own a wind developer?
A: Goldman Sachs is already very involved in energy in terms of power generation and finance, and even has ownership interests in several wind projects. Goldman Sachs is confident that the wind energy business will continue to grow rapidly and become an increasingly significant share of our national energy supply.
Q: Why is Goldman Sachs making this purchase?
A: Less than 1% of US power-generating capacity currently comes from wind. Goldman Sachs sees considerable room for growth in wind energy. This is the fastest growing segment of the energy market.
* On July 2, 2007, Energias de Portugal, S.A. (“EDP”), a major Portuguese utility, acquired 100% of the share capital of Horizon Wind Energy LLC from Goldman Sachs, in a deal valuing the US wind farm group's equity at 2.150 bln usd.
报道说:地平线风能公司(Horizon Wind Energy)的出售为高盛带来了9亿美元的收益。那么高盛当年应该是以12.5亿美元买下的这个公司。两年时间,年投资回报率31.14%。
价值
Value
* 250,000 acres land under lease all the way from New York to California.
* over 150 employees
* Wind Power:
The company currently owns 559 gross MW of operating wind projects and has 997 MW of projects under construction, for expected operational capacity by the end of 2007 of 1,556 gross MW (1,324 net MW). Horizon also has a strong pipeline of projects in several stages of development in 15 different states across the country, with combined aggregate generating capacity of over 9,000 MW.
发电:559 MW on stream(相当于11个5万千万的电场)
在建:997 MW under construction and will be completed by the end of this year.(相当于20个5万千万的电场)
This 1,556 MW project's average Capacity Factor 37.5%
潜在:7,500 MW in potential (还可以再建150个5万千万的电场)
估价
Valuation:
Wind power generators are currently valued at $1.0 million per MW of generating capacity, and between $200,000 to $550,000 per MW under development.
(559 x 1 + 997 x 0.5)*(37.5%/25%) + 7500 x 0.05= 1.961 Billion USD
结论
Conclustion:
1.风力发电企业的价值在风电场建成前后有巨大区别,一旦建成投产,价值翻倍。而风电场的建设周期一般在1年左右,但是这一年,需要巨大的资金投资,风险极高。所以,投资风电场的最佳时机是在其马上就要开工建设,一旦建成后,就可以卖掉套现了。
2.风电场的退出,出售给大型的电力公司也是一条路。
注释
Note:
The above data come from:
https://www.haiguinet.com/bbs/viewtopic.php?p=1194982
https://www.haiguinet.com/bbs/viewtopic.php?p=1194836
https://www.horizonwind.com/company/owners.aspx
https://www.horizonwind.com/news/articles/2005march21.aspx
https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/news/2007-09-20/000002706430.html
作者:安普若 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由安普若于2007-10-10 周三, 15:48修改,总共修改了9次
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- 安氏案例分析(投行系列,风电系列):高盛21亿出售地平线风能公司,年投资回报率31.14%,风电企业是如何估价的? -- 安普若 - (3635 Byte) 2007-10-10 周三, 08:16 (5137 reads)
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