| 作者 |
 经济学家:中国若不买美债 美房市恐泡沫化 附原文: China Unpegs Itself (By Paul Krugman) |
 |
jamesjames9
[博客]
[个人文集]
游客
|
|
|
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
美国知名经济学家克鲁曼在周五纽约时报专栏，形容中国此次宣布人民币不再盯住美元可谓「莫测高深(inscrutable)」。他认为这很可能只是中国在美国国会保护主义强大压力下，稍事喘息的做法。
虽然如此，克鲁曼表示，中国此举可能是世界经济大逆转的开始。说穿了，一切攸关资金流向。
文章表示，资金通常从成熟、已开发经济体，先流向开发度低的经济体，然後上溯回流。例如，美国在十九世纪的发展有一大部份是靠英国这个已臻工业化国家投资人的资金挹注。
十年前，在还未发生一九九七─一九九八年全球金融危机前，资本流动看来遵循历来模式，从日本及西方国家流向亚洲及拉丁美洲新兴市场。但近来的流向却是相反，资本自新兴市场，特别是自中国大陆流出到美国。
克鲁曼说，此逆转向上的流势并非民间部门的决策、而是官方政策所造成。为了避免人民币升值，中国政府持续买进大量美元并将收益投资在美国债券上。
但反对中国大买美元的压力日增。为了将人民币维持在低档，中国的贸易顺差不断扩大，引发美国及欧洲政坛的反弹声浪升高。尚未脱离贫穷的中国大陆，继续把许多资源投注在基本上并无用处的美元累积上，而非用於提高当地的生活水准。
问题是，一旦中国终於决定停止这种怪异行径，美国将会发生什麽事？
他认为，中国不再大买美元会导致人民币币值锐升，还可能导致美元对日圆及欧元这些中国先前并未等量购入的其他主要货币大幅贬值。如此一来将使美国制造商因对手的成本上扬而增强竞争力。
但若中国不再大买美国债券，则美国利率会上扬。克鲁曼说，这对美国房地产市场将是利空，恐有戳破房市泡沫之虞。
China Unpegs Itself
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: July 22, 2005
Thursday's statement from the People's Bank of China, announcing that the yuan is no longer pegged to the dollar, was terse and uninformative - you might say inscrutable. There's a good chance that this is simply a piece of theater designed to buy a few months' respite from protectionist pressures in the U.S. Congress.
Skip to next paragraph
Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times
More Columns by Paul Krugman
Forum: Paul Krugman's Columns
Nonetheless, it could be the start of a process that will turn the world economy upside down - or, more accurately, right side up. That is, the free ride China has been giving America, in which the world's richest economy has been getting cheap loans from a country that is dynamic but still quite poor, may be coming to an end.
It's all about which way the capital is flowing.
Capital usually flows from mature, developed economies to less-developed economies on their way up. For example, a lot of America's growth in the 19th century was financed by investors from Britain, which was already industrialized.
A decade ago, before the world financial crisis of 1997-1998, capital movements seemed to fit the historic pattern, as funds flowed from Japan and Western nations to "emerging markets" in Asia and Latin America. But these days things are running in reverse: capital is flowing out of emerging markets, especially China, and into the United States.
This uphill flow isn't the result of private-sector decisions; it's the result of official policy. To keep China's currency from rising, the Chinese government has been buying up huge quantities of dollars and investing the proceeds in U.S. bonds.
One way to grasp how weird this policy is would be to think about what a comparable policy would look like in the United States, scaled up to match the size of our economy. It's as if last year the U.S. government invested $1 trillion of taxpayers' money in low-interest Japanese bonds, and this year looks set to invest an additional $1.5 trillion the same way.
Some economists think there is a deep rationale for this seemingly perverse policy. I think it's something the Chinese government stumbled into as it tried to protect itself from the 1997-1998 crisis, and it is reluctant to change because the Chinese economy has been doing well. That is, China's leaders don't want to mess with success.
But pressures against China's dollar purchases are building. By keeping the yuan down, China is feeding a trade surplus that is creating a growing political backlash in America and Europe. And China, which is still a poor country, is devoting a lot of resources to the accumulation of a basically useless pile of dollars instead of to higher living standards.
The question is what happens to us if the Chinese finally decide to stop acting so strangely.
An end to China's dollar-buying spree would lead to a sharp rise in the value of the yuan. It would probably also lead to a sharp fall in the value of the dollar relative to other major currencies, like the yen and the euro, which the Chinese haven't been buying on the same scale. This would help U.S. manufacturers by raising their competitors' costs.
But if the Chinese stopped buying all those U.S. bonds, interest rates would rise. This would be bad news for housing - maybe very bad news, if the interest rate rise burst the bubble.
In the long run, the economic effects of an end to China's dollar buying would even out. America would have more industrial workers and fewer real estate agents, more jobs in Michigan and fewer in Florida, leaving the overall level of employment pretty much unaffected. But as John Maynard Keynes pointed out, in the long run we are all dead.
In the short run, some people would win, but others would lose. And I suspect that the losers would greatly outnumber the winners.
And what about the strategic effects? Right now America is a superpower living on credit - something I don't think has happened since Philip II ruled Spain. What will happen to our stature if and when China takes away our credit card?
This story is still in its early days. On the first day of the new policy, the yuan rose only 2 percent, not enough to make any noticeable difference. But one of these days Chinese dollar purchases will trail off, and we'll find ourselves living in interesting times.
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
-
 经济学家:中国若不买美债 美房市恐泡沫化 附原文: China Unpegs Itself (By Paul Krugman) -- jamesjames9 - (5155 Byte) 2005-7-23 周六, 10:45 (1100 reads)
|
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
