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 最新俄罗斯杂志对中国的评价 英文 |
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soireee
头衔: 海归少校
加入时间: 2005/01/31
文章: 117
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作者：soireee 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Game in days of changes concerning the further development of a situation in the Peoples Republic of China gives director of expert center Chinacom Dmitry Kormilitsyn - Assuming to adjust the forecast with China partner attitudes, it would be desirable to be assured in its prospects.
Whether there is a problem for the Peoples Republic of China a differentiation of a standard of living and, how consequence, political instability, aspiration to expansion of freedom, the further democratization?
- the problem of a disproportion in economic development of separate regions inside of one country costs not only in front of China, and before all mankind during several last centuries. However, if earlier considered it basically on an example of the European countries now it is actual and for Southeast Asia. Really, today in China it is possible to allocate roughly developing seaside areas, territories along coasts of the rivers Huang Hes and Yangtze where cities grow, manufactures open also the standard of living, accordingly, grows. Also it is possible to allocate rather backward areas of internal, agrarian China. Whether a problem it? And yes, also is not present. Is not present - because today we observe extremely active, but thus natural process of industrialization when there is an outflow of the population from remote places in the industrial regions testing accrueing deficiency in a labour. And still it and the problem because process of reorganization of economy, social way extremely painfully passes in any society, and without various excesses here to not manage.
- But in fact it is quite possible, what on a background ethnic or religious трений such contradictions can lead even to decomposition of the country?
the mechanistic perception of China as loosened conglomerate of regions with a different degree of dynamics of economic development is not absolutely correct. When we speak, that China is a multithousand-year civilization, it not mere words. Yes, China is built in global economic, information, ideological space which has processed set of the countries and modes last years. But concerning China and today we shall apply a principle of the doctor sun孙中山 , formulated in the beginning of XX century, - " CHIESE western ". Yes - democracy, but specifically Chinese, yes - the market, but is the market not similar neither on European, nor on American. The monoethnic state which has been brought up in uniform cultural tradition, in one language, in one ideology, is quite capable to resist to economic problems. So, for example, if we have mentioned a problem of religious distinctions and freedom of worship our experts mark that is not enough in what Muslim country of the world there are so much mosques and Muslim educational institutions on soul of the Muslim population, as in China. There are problems ethnic - for example, movement of Uigur separatists. But these problems not so today are sharp. And hardly will become aggravated in immediate prospects. The state holds them under the rigid control. Though forms of this control, over the European sight, can seem and excessively rigid.
And nevertheless in case of a deepening of process of democratization of the country and loss of the control over it a handheld computer, the probability of serious crisis what consequences at it can be is how much great? And by the way, whether there will be countries which will want "to stimulate" this process?
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the monoethnic state which has been brought up in uniform cultural tradition, in one language, in one ideology, is quite capable to resist to economic problems
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Today there are no preconditions for the system crisis, capable to cause resolute changes in the device of a society, ideological or any other collapse. The modern modernized China shows enviable immunity to revolutionary changes, all changes occur there naturally, and and in sphere of policy: The same handheld computer today is any more party Мао Цзэдуна, but even not a party Dan Sjaopina. And here the forces interested in easing of China by a method artificial провоцирования of political shocks inside of the state system of the Peoples Republic of China and traditional political way, certainly, are. In one of last clauses about China the former state secretary of the USA Henry Kissindzher has unambiguously noticed, that on the agenda it is necessary to not admit a problem occurrence of hegemon in the Asian region and that for the USA this problem from a category of the strategic purposes.
And still hardly someone seriously can count on export, say, fashionable " color revolutions " to China. Here, more likely, ill-wishers of the Peoples Republic of China conduct " works on perimeter " - for example, try to create problem points in frontier territories from the Peoples Republic of China, to warm up ethnic conflicts. It and a traditional headache of Pekin - Taiwan, and escalating of intensity in the Central Asia. Threat of destabilization in this region, growth of Islamic extremism, occurrence of the American military bases is a threat not so much for Russia, how many for China. However for both our states here a zone of the vital interests that is why Russia as any other country in the world, is interested in strong China, in an establishment with it of partner, friendly attitudes. Nobody should dominate over problem region, only then there are chances of the joint decision of difficult problems.
- The economy of China grows constantly, rates do not fall, consumption of fuel, a power consumption grow also. Whether the Chinese economic miracle will end with an energy crisis?
- it is valid, last years China became the largest consumer of power resources, first of all to oil. It is possible to assume with confidence, considering current economic growth, that in the near future the problem of reception of resources such will stand all more sharply. Moreover, it is unprecedented the high prices for oil in many respects are caused by constantly growing appetites of China. For all that while threat for China is not present " oil starvation ". First, needs partially become covered by own resources. One of these days agency Bloomberg has declared Chinese oil-extracting company PetroChina of the largest in Asia on capitalization. Secondly, China not simply large importer of oil, and the importer constantly increasing the list of the suppliers - recently it included Venezuela. Latin America in general became one of the important directions in the investment policy of the Peoples Republic of China - China promised in total to Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, Venezuela and other countries about hundred billions dollars for the period till 2020, and the most part of these means is put in power. For comparison: till now it was offered to Russia only 12 billion dollars. Under an available information, too it is offered to direct a significant part of these means to power sphere. Import of the Russian oil, the truth, grows, in opinion of the Chinese party, not fast enough rates. Thirdly, China conducts active game on buying up of the largest world oil-extracting companies. As we remember, the Chinese party showed interest and to the Russian oil actives, there are plans and for the similar companies of the USA - today the Chinese companies, for example, are aimed at purchase American UnoCal. Thus it is necessary to understand, that success or unsuccess of the Chinese party in such transactions - a question not only or not so much economic, how many political. China today very serious player on a floor of modern geopolitics, and its potential contenders, first of all the USA, naturally, aspire to hold under the control its access to strategic power resources. But to change the Chinese diplomacy - a problem of the maximum category of complexity and for госдепа. Yes, the current consumption grows. But also this question till now was effectively resolved by the Chinese party. It is necessary to note, that with it Pekin is helped also by the Russian Federation, the truth while it is insufficiently active. Were, for example, the certain technological problems at construction sew the atomic power station in China, and now the further prospect of our cooperation in the field of atomic engineering is rather foggy.
External factors too cannot be dismissed. How will be conducted with world powers in relation to China? And how China can react, for example, to attempts to limit the Chinese export?
- any world power is not glad to occurrence of the new strong player on a world scene is an axiom. China exception did not become. The Peoples Republic of China already today makes improbable hitherto quantity cheap, but thus enough the qualitative consumer goods, fast rates masters manufacture of home appliances and electronics (we shall notice, in parallel avaricious actives of leaders in this area of the world companies). China invites the experts capable the nearest years to build and debug the modern, hi-tech enterprises. Importers of this production generally become the developed countries. Differently, China has turned to the largest competitor in the field of economy - both for the USA, and for the European Union. Last reacts nervously, tries to enter sanctions against the certain nomenclatures of the Chinese goods (for example, textiles) and т. The item China reacts how the wise, strategically conceiving businessman should react. It constantly confirms, that as the member of WTO, operates and will operate strictly by rules of that game in which other members of this organization play all. Also it is possible to not doubt, that so it and will be. Hardly having conceded today, tomorrow it is possible to receive if not everything much - this Chinese principle we shall apply practically in all areas. At such situation, certainly, to manufacturers, from the countries of the European Union first of all, it is necessary to develop the reciprocal strategy of development and positioning in the markets. While we see process or a full conclusion to China of manufactures from the Europe, or opening there new manufactures.
- The opportunity of political expansion of China is how much serious? Including expansion with the purpose to provide the power safety?
- now we see, that the problems, including power, China tries to solve in the lobbist or economic ways. In some cases it is not possible. And as the policy is continuation of economy, is not excluded, that in the near future we shall see, for example, the Chinese lobby in parliaments and the governments of the leading countries of the world. But besides - I think, that will lobby the interests Chineses by the standard rules.
- What form of attitudes with China for Russia is the most preferable, in fact it is possible to appear imperceptibly in too close embraces of east neighbour?
- Speech needs to be conducted not about the form, and about the maintenance which directly depends on balance of the economic importance of mutual relations, more likely. If there are overall aims and the general problems they inevitably will pull together us. All political disagreements between our countries are solved, recent ratification of the additional agreement on border has finished this page. Now on the agenda cooperation in the field of economy. And here it is necessary to watch simply that it was mutually advantageous - in practice, instead of in words. We need to export not only power resources that us has not tightened in " oil воронку " roughly growing Chinese economy; at us is both technologies, and knowledge which we are ready to offer the Chinese partners.
作者：soireee 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 最新俄罗斯杂志对中国的评价 英文 -- soireee - (11827 Byte) 2005-7-05 周二, 13:20 (1379 reads)
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