| 作者 |
 VC系列：投资中国 该投什么？（转帖） |
 |
安普若
[博客]
[个人文集]
头衔: 海归元勋
声望: 大师
性别: 
加入时间: 2004/02/21
文章: 26038
来自: 中国美国的飞机上
海归分: 4196257
|
|
|
作者：安普若 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
投资中国 该投什么？
2011年 11月 04日 07:45
Robert Powell
随着第70亿名地球公民的诞生，全世界都为之紧张兴奋。但真正关系大局的一群人其实是目前生活、工作和消费在中国的13亿人。
是啊，中国控制着钱袋，中国看来也在掌控着世界的议程。如今，每个人都在谈论中国人。
比如，布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）本周举办了一次会议，与会专家谈到了中国为重新平衡经济而制定的总体规划。这份规划主要强调国内消费，希望改变目前出口拉动增长的发展模式。
此外，在本周的G20法国峰会上，中国也占据了报章的头条。此次峰会将讨论全球经济复苏及尚在持续的债务危机。如果中国投资欧盟，欧盟又将做出何种让步以回报中国？
亚洲股票研究院（Asian Equity Research Institute）的主任阿本豪斯（Philip Abbenhaus）说，总之，你无法忽视中国。
这令我们好奇：鉴于当前形势，美国和中国正涌现出什么样的投资机会？
大宗商品
掌管贝莱德（BlackRock）全球配置基金（Global Allocation Fund）的团队本周报告说，包括多种大宗商品在内，目前并不缺乏投资机会。尤其是在新兴市场作为边际消费者的情况下。
贝莱德的团队认为，新兴市场并没有像发达经济体一样放慢经济增速，他们的大宗商品消费量所占比重正在上升。
比如，贝莱德的团队说，眼下油价可能会下跌，因为美国石油消费量下降、库存增加。
报告说，然而世界其它国家还在继续增长。目前，印度和中国的消费量远远低于其它国家。随着这些发展中经济体继续以更快的速度增长，它们对石油、煤炭和天然气等自然资源的需求继续上升是完全可能的。
报告说，因此从更长期、也就是未来两到三年来看，部分大宗商品市场暂时的弱势构成了绝佳的买入机会。
看多中国的新能源和文化产业
毫无疑问，中国和印度正在快速增长，所以它们的政策制定者面临的问题完全不同于西方。贝莱德分析师说，摆在他们面前的是经济过热，消费物价上涨，工资以双位数增长。
有些人说中国经济正在放缓，确实也是这样。但亚洲证券研究所(Asian Equity Research Institute)的阿本豪斯(Abbenhaus)说，中国短期内发生衰退的风险非常低。比如国家统计局上周就说，这个世界第二大经济体可能会维持稳定的、相对快速的增长。
另一些人也是这样认为。贝莱德说，我们感觉中国正在从高速增长放缓为快速增长；现在我们应当非常清楚这不是偶然的，而是中国政府为经济减速的政策导致的。
贝莱德说，政府正在努力影响部分城市过热的楼市，同时通过收紧货币政策来应对消费物价和工资上涨的问题；但随着中国经济放缓，这些政策有很大的余地在必要情况下变得更加宽松。
武汉大学经济学副教授陈雷（音）在电子邮件中说，考虑到中国当前的情况，目前有两个领域值得注意，一是文化产业，一是清洁能源产业。
陈雷说，上个月中共十七届中央委员会第六次全体会议采纳了一套文化发展纲要，用以深化文化体制改革，推动文化产业成为“国民经济支柱性产业”。
2010年，包括出版、影视和广告等行业在内的文化产业为中国贡献了2.78%的GDP。随着这些行业获得新的投资和开发，中国政府预计文化产业对GDP的贡献将在2016年达到5%。
据陈雷说，文化产业的领先企业包括北京歌华有线电视网络股份有限公司、中视传媒股份有限公司、广东九州阳光传媒股份有限公司、时代传媒等等。
至于清洁能源产业，陈雷说，中国政府已经认识到环境保护对于经济可持续发展的重要性。在十二五规划（2011至2015年）中，政府强调了清洁能源的开发利用，包括水电、风电、太阳能、生物能源等。
陈雷说，政府将鼓励、扶持这些领域的研究和开发，并为相关企业提供税收优惠；因为中国经济仍被看作是半市场、半计划的，中央政府的政策和决策对相关产业有着直接的影响。
陈雷说，清洁能源行业的领先企业包括安泰科技股份有限公司、兰州长城电工股份有限公司、沈阳金山热电股份有限公司和广东电力发展股份有限公司。
中国蓝筹股
其他人也持类似观点。阿本豪斯说，由于美欧市场陷入动荡，中国股市可能值得进一步关注。因为中国经济仍然增长，估计增速会达到9%，市场透明度将进一步提升，中国政府释放的信号则把我们指向了可投资的最安全的领域。
阿本豪斯说，中央政府基本上已经告诉你他们未来的投资方向，我喜欢把赌注押在中央政府这一方。所以你应当关注受政府青睐的领域，这会令投资中国更加容易一点。
在阿本豪斯看来，农业就是受中国政府青睐的一个领域（虽然在美国市场上并没有办法利用这点获利）。通信以及能源和石油则是另外两个尤其受政府重视的行业。阿本豪斯说，从本质上讲，一个行业只要接触中国消费者，那么中国人就是你希望争取的对象。
被阿本豪斯称作“主导领袖”的五家在纽交所（NYSE）上市交易的国有企业分别是：中国石油（PetroChina Co. Ltd.）、中国石化（China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.）、中国移动（China Mobile Ltd.）、中国电信（China Telecom Corp. Ltd.）以及中国联通（香港）股份有限公司（China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited.）。
阿本豪斯说，这五家公司都支付股息。它们总体上在2011年的平均涨幅达到9.5%。这五只股票会随市场一起波动吗？当然会。美国经济形势能否影响中国？肯定能。但这一篮子股票所代表的公司是否会坚持在地球上人口最多的国家提供重要服务？这是一定的。
（Robert Powell现任MarketWatch出版的《退休周刊》（Retirement Weekly）主编。）
本文译自MarketWatch
https://cn.wsj.com/gb/20111104/opn074936.asp?source=newsletter
Where to invest in China now
Commentary: Consider clean-energy industry, Chinese blue chips
By Robert Powell, MarketWatch
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — The world is all in a dither about there being 7-plus billion people now living on this Earth. But the only people who seem to matter at the moment, really, are the 1.3 billion living, working and consuming in China right now.
Yes, China holds the purse strings. It’s seemingly controlling the world’s agenda. And everyone is talking about the Chinese.
For instance, the Brookings Institution this week hosted a conference in which experts talked about China’s master plan to rebalance its economy, primarily by emphasizing domestic consumption over China’s current model of export-led growth.
Plus, China is grabbing headlines as leaders of the G-20 nations meet in France this week to discuss global economic recovery and the ongoing debt crisis. What sort of concessions will China get in return for investing in the European Union?
“In short, you can’t not pay attention to them,” said Philip Abbenhaus, the director of the Asian Equity Research Institute.
That leaves us asking: What sort of investment opportunities are emerging here in the U.S. and in China given current conditions?
Commodities
For its part, the team that manages BlackRock’s Global Allocation Fund MDLOX -2.44% reports this week that there’s no shortage of opportunities, including many commodities, “particularly in those cases where the emerging markets are the marginal consumer.”
According to the BlackRock team, “those countries are not slowing in the same way as the developed world, and they are becoming a larger part of commodity consumption.”
For example, the BlackRock team said that oil prices may come down now because of declining consumption and inventory buildup in the United States.
“However, the rest of the world continues to grow. Today, India and China are consuming at levels that are far below other nations. As these developing economies continue to grow at faster rates, it is likely the demand for natural resources such as oil, coal and natural gas will continue to go higher,” the report said.
“So, the temporary weaknesses in some of these commodity markets are creating excellent buying opportunities for the longer-term, meaning two or three years out.”
Bullish on green energy and culture in China
Make no mistake about it, China and India are growing rapidly, so much so that policymakers in China and India face a completely different problem. “They’re confronted with economies that are overheating, with rising consumer prices and with wages that are growing at a double-digit rate,” the BlackRock analysts said.
Yes, there are those who say China’s economy is slowing. But the risk of a recession in China in the near future is very low, according to Abbenhaus of the Asian Equity Research Institute. For instance, China’s National Bureau of Statistics last week said the world’s second largest economy will likely maintain its stable and relatively fast growth.
Others agree. “Our sense is that China is slowing from very rapid growth to rapid growth, BlackRock said. “Now, we should be very clear that this is not by accident, but a result of Chinese government policies to slow the economy.
“The government is trying to both influence the over-building of housing in some cities and also deal with rising consumer prices and rising wage rates via more restrictive monetary policy. However, as the Chinese economy slows, there is great scope for those policies to change and, if need be, to become more stimulative.”
Given current conditions in China, there are currently two areas worth investigating, said Lei Chen, an associate professor of economics at Wuhan University in China, in an email. One is the cultural industry and the other is the clean-energy industry.
Last month, at the sixth plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Chen said a cultural-development guideline was adopted to deepen the reform of China’s cultural system and to promote the industry to become “a pillar of the national economy.”
In 2010, cultural industries — including the publishing, movie and advertising industries, among others — contributed 2.78% to China's GDP. With the new investment and development in these industries, the Chinese government expects this figure to rise to 5% in 2016.
According to Chen, the leading companies in the cultural industries include Beijing Gehua CATV Network Co., China Television Media Co., Guangdong China Sunshine Media Co., and Times Media Co.
As for the clean-energy industry, Chen said the Chinese government has realized the importance of environmental protection to sustainable economic development. In China's 12th five-year (2011-2015) development plan, it emphasizes the development and utilization of clean energy, including hydroelectric power, wind power, solar energy, biomass energy, and the like.
“The government will encourage and support the research and development in these fields as well as offering tax incentives to related businesses,” Chen said. “Because China's economy is still considered a partly market-oriented and partly central-control economy, policies and decisions from the central government have direct impacts to the related industries.”
Chen said the leading companies in the clean-energy industries include Advanced Technology & Materials Co., Lanzhou Great Wall Electrical Co., Shenyang Jinshan Thermoelectric Co., and Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.
Blue chips in China
Others are of a similar opinion. “With U.S. and European markets in turmoil, Chinese stocks may warrant a closer look, because the economy is still growing at an estimated 9% pace, transparency will be increasing, and Chinese government signals point the way to the safest buys,” Abbenhaus said.
“The central government basically tells you what they’re going to invest in, and I like to bet with the central government,” Abbenhaus said. “So you look at sectors that are favored, and it makes investing in China a little bit easier.”
One such sector, according to Abbenhaus, is agriculture, though there isn’t a way to take advantage of that on U.S. markets. Communications and energy and oil in particular are two other sectors that are in favor. “In essence, everything that touches the Chinese consumer, the Chinese citizen is the place that you want to be,” he said.
The five NYSE-traded companies that Abbenhaus calls “the dominant leaders” in China are PetroChina Co. Ltd. PTR +1.46% , China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SNP +2.55% , China Mobile Ltd. CHL +0.91% , China Telecom Corp. Ltd. CHA +0.57% and China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited CHU +2.65% .
“They all pay a dividend, and as a group have increased an average 9.5% in 2011,” Abbenhaus said. “Will these stocks fluctuate with the markets? Sure. Can the U.S. economy impact China? You bet. But does this basket of stocks stick to providing critical services to the largest population on the planet? Absolutely.”
Where does an 800-pound gorilla sit?
And then there’s Rob Isbitts, the chief investment strategist at Carson Wealth Management, who this week shared the following scenario.
“What if China really gets angry?” Isbitts said, in a commentary that appeared on RIABiz, a trade website. “Where does an 800-pound gorilla sit? Anywhere he wants.
“Where does a country with 1.3 billion people and a lot of our bonds in its portfolio sit? On us, until we yell ‘Uncle!’” he said.
“It’s fashionable in D.C. and elsewhere to bash the Chinese for their suppressive human-rights policies and certain business practices. But this is what built up while consumers and governments in the developed world were fighting over Tickle Me Elmo’s, iPhones for our eight-year-olds and flipping houses for a living,” he said.
“Meanwhile, the Chinese and another billion-plus people in India are taking a run at Westernization… and economic supremacy. The good news is that we will service their needs through our corporations, which will play a major role in feeding and entertaining the population in areas formerly known as the ‘Third World,’” Isbitts said.
“The bad news is that in the long run, this could become our primary role in the global economy, because our economy will be locked into slow-growth mode for the foreseeable future.” Read Isbitt’s commentary at this website.
Robert Powell is editor of Retirement Weekly, published by MarketWatch. Learn more about Retirement Weekly here. Follow his tweets here.
Robert Powell has been a journalist covering personal finance issues for more than 20 years, writing and editing for publications such as The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, and Mutual Fund Market News.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/where-to-invest-in-china-now-2011-11-02?pagenumber=2
作者：安普若 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
-
 VC系列：投资中国 该投什么？（转帖） -- 安普若 - (11524 Byte) 2011-11-11 周五, 01:36 (3075 reads) - 呵呵 -- nnzqj - (56 Byte) 2011-11-12 周六, 13:22 (251 reads)
- 校长厉害 -- nnzqj - (40 Byte) 2011-11-11 周五, 12:45 (491 reads)
|
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
