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 [分享]为什么华尔街的预测不可信？Why Wall Street's Forecast Can't Be Trusted |
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not_a_CTA
头衔: 海归准将
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加入时间: 2005/07/03
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作者：not_a_CTA 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
今年夏季股市忽上忽下之际，有一个市场数据却坚如磐石，这就是华尔街对标准普尔500指数（Standard & Poor's 500）的预测均值。就在标普500指数像醉汉走路一样踉踉跄跄之际，华尔街对其年底将收于哪个点位的一致预测几乎没有偏离过1400点。
多年来，一些市场预测人士的预测准确度就跟气象预报员差不多（还记得《道指36000点》那本书吗？）。然而，即使是那些更为现实的预测也总有一些能让专家感到惊讶的地方：许多市场策略师坚韧不拔的毅力。这些策略师会时而修改他们的预测，但独立市场研究公司Bespoke Investment Group的联合创始人沃尔特斯（Justin Walters）说，这通常都是滞后指标，市场抛售之后他们就会下调预测。
但预测均值仅仅道出了部分故事，区分牛市和熊市的往往还有很多东西。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）预计2011年标普500指数将收于1238点。而德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）则体现了另一个极端，该机构坚持认为标普500指数今年将收于1550点的高位。
如果说我们能从去年的情况得到任何启示，那么我们会说华尔街的策略师可能依旧会对预测作出修正。德意志银行首席美国股市策略师查达（Binky Chadha）说，2010年夏天股市大幅下跌之后，该行在去年9月“微调”了其预测值，将目标价位调低了近4%。查达并不排除在劳工节假期之后调整今年预测值的可能。与此同时，对冲风险的情况在摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）要少得多。摩根大通对前景的预测是华尔街上第二乐观的。该公司美国首席策略师汤姆•李（Tom Lee）说，只要不出现通胀率上升或是对希腊债务危机后果的再次担忧等重大经济冲击，他对标普500指数今年收于1475点的预测具有信心。
所以，如果这些头脑聪慧、收入颇丰的策略师在市场和当前事件令预测看上去非常荒谬的情况下也不打算改变自己的预期时，投资者应该倾听他们的意见吗？Bespoke的沃尔特斯说，反向操作投资者可能会觉得上调预测值预示着市场估值过高。但一些财务规划师则完全忽视华尔街的预言。在密歇根州诺维（Novi, Mich.）拥有一家以自己名字命名的财务规划公司的帕帕多普洛斯（George Papadopoulos）说，大多数股票策略师往往过于乐观，只有少数几人是“永远看跌市场”的。他建议忽视总体数据，专注于那些你所能控制的东西，比如为自己的投资组合找到股票和债券的完美平衡。
Why Wall Street's Forecast Can't Be Trusted
SMARTMONEY MAGAZINE SEPTEMBER 6, 2011, 7:45 A.M. ET.
Despite the market's ups and downs this year, the Street's consensus hasn't changed.
By J. ALEX TARQUINIO
While stocks gyrated over the summer, one market gauge remained steady as a rock: the average Wall Street forecast. As Standard & Poor's 500 index skidded like a drunk on a bender, the Street's consensus about where it would end the year hardly wavered from 1400.
Over the years, some market forecasters have been about as accurate as, well, weather forecasters. (Remember Dow 36000?) Yet there's something that amazes experts about even the more realistic prognostications: the stick-to-itiveness of many market strategists. They will occasionally revise their predictions, "but that's usually a lagging indicator," with decreases coming after a market sell-off, says Justin Walters, cofounder of the independent market-research firm Bespoke Investment Group.
Averages only tell part of the story, though, and often a lot of turf separates the bulls from the bears. Morgan Stanley predicts that the S&P 500 will finish 2011 at 1238. At the other extreme, Deutsche Bank has been holding fast to the high-end estimate of 1550.
If last year is any indication, the Street's strategists might still make a course correction. After stocks fell sharply in the summer of 2010, Deutsche Bank "fine-tuned" its estimate by slicing nearly 4 percent off the target price last September, says Binky Chadha, the bank's chief U.S. equity strategist. He doesn't rule out adjusting this year's forecast after Labor Day. Meanwhile, there's far less hedging at J.P. Morgan, which has the Street's second most optimistic outlook. Tom Lee, the firm's chief U.S. strategist, says he is confident in his 1475 forecast, as long as there isn't a major economic shock like rising inflation or renewed worries about ramifications of the Greek debt crisis.
So if the smart, well-paid strategists aren't going to change their forecasts even as the market and current events make those forecasts look ridiculous, should investors bother to listen to them in the first place? Bespoke's Walters says a contrarian investor might decide that rising forecasts indicate an overvalued market. But some financial planners ignore the Wall Street prognostications altogether. George Papadopoulos, the owner of the eponymous financial planning firm in Novi, Mich., says most stock strategists tend to be too bullish, save a few who are "perma-bears." Ignore the headline number, he says, and "focus on what you can control," like finding a good balance of stocks and bonds for your portfolio.
https://www.smartmoney.com/invest/stocks/stocks-are-up-stocks-are-down-wall-street-keeps-saying-the-same-thing-1312406971520/
作者：not_a_CTA 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [分享]为什么华尔街的预测不可信？Why Wall Street's Forecast Can't Be Trusted -- not_a_CTA - (3973 Byte) 2011-9-07 周三, 06:28 (2596 reads)
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