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 【黄金】这篇文章挺有意思。 |
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ferncrest
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作者：ferncrest 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
How High Can Gold Go? Just Look At Oil, Equities, And Money Supply
Jul. 18 2011 - 12:40 pm | 5,027 views | 0 recommendations | 3 comments
By AGUSTINO FONTEVECCHIA
An employee melts gold bars on April 6, 2009 a...
Gold, the market's diva - AFP via @daylife
Gold continues to set records, hitting a fresh nominal all-time high of $1,602.86 on Monday, as the shiny metal goes on an 11-day rally (its longest since 1980) and appears set to go higher. Concerns over the debt ceiling debate in the U.S., along with sovereign debt woes in Europe sending peripheral debt to nearly unsustainable levels, have put pressure on risk assets across the board and sent investors fleeing for safe-haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc. The question now is, how high can it go?
Front-month gold contracts, set to expire July 27, rose to an all-time high before dropping marginally to 41,600 by 11:47 AM in New York. Gold for August delivery, the most actively traded gold future at the Comex, jumped even higher, hitting $1,607.9 during Monday’s session.
Gold is up 13% this year as measured by the SPDR gold trust ETF and has attracted a lot of attention, and capital, given record low interest rates in the U.S. and other developed economies, a weak dollar, and weak fundamental economic indicators across the world’s richest nations.
Research by Nomura shows that gold has the capacity to act both as a risky and a safe-haven asset. The precious metal is highly correlated Nomura’s risk sentiment indicator and negatively to the U.S. dollar, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset. Gold is also negatively correlated with real rates. But the yellow metal has recently gained on fears that the Euro’s days are numbered, giving the continued implosion of Greece, weakness across other peripherals, and substantial pressure on Italy’s financial sector, the EU’s third largest economy. (Read Italy Is Too Big To Bail, Even For France And Germany).
Gold is still well below its real highs, set back in July 18, 1980 when it hit what would be a price of $2,400 today, according to Capital Economics. While the situation was different back then, with double-digit inflation and geopolitical events fueling massive volatility (the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan were among the topics de jour).
Analysts are scrambling to revise their price estimates and set a top for gold in 2011. Fundamentals look strong for the yellow metal, with limited supply additions and increased demand from central banks (according to the World Gold Council, net purchases year-to-date have already surpassed the level seen during all of 2010) and retail investors (in the second quarter, physically backed ETFs saw strong net inflows, “adding a collective 46 tonnes of gold to a total 2,155 tonnes-worth US$104.2 billion-in holdings”). (Read With Gold Set To Peak At $1700, Miners Like Goldcorp Look Cheap).
Demand for gold appears to be fueled by uncertainty and a move toward hard assets that provide security beyond a piece of paper that can be debased by the printing press. Experts at Capital Economics suggest comparing the price of gold with other assets to see how high it could go.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, was trading at $115.51 in New York on Monday, a ratio of 13.9 compared to the spot price for gold. That is below the average since 1970 of around 16, suggesting the yellow metal could climb up to $1,870 in the near-term. From the report:
But there have been several periods where this ratio has been as high as 25 to 30, which, based on current oil prices, would imply a gold price of $3,000 to $3,500. Even applying the lower figure of 25 to our medium-term forecast of $85 for Brent implies a gold price of $2,125.
In relation to equity prices, Capital Economics sees gold as a little expensive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading at about 8 times the price of gold, compared to a historical ratio of 10 since 1900. From the report:
But this ratio fell as low as 2 during the Great Depression, and again in the early 1980s. Even if the DJIA were to fall by 60% following some massive new shock, to around 5,000, applying this ratio of 2 would imply a gold price of $10,000 (the extreme scenario marking the top of our range).
Another interesting approach is to look at money supply and measures of the money stock. Since September 2008, the U.S. monetary base has increased by more than 200%, compared with a rise in the price of gold of about 70%. “If the two had been directly related, gold should already have risen to around $2,800.” (Watch Like Gold But Can’t Handle The Volatility, Check Out The Miners).
Looking only at M2, the U.S. broad money aggregate, it has only risen 20% in that time period. “The ratios of gold prices to US M2 and nominal GDP are already some way above their long-run averages,” reads the report.
The analysts chose to remain a bit more conservative, seeing the price of gold hitting $2,000 by 2012, but, given the current, crazy environment, they would “not be surprised to see prices reach this level sooner and then rise significantly further.” (Read Bernanke Fights Ron Paul In Congress: Gold Isn’t Money).
作者：ferncrest 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 【黄金】这篇文章挺有意思。 -- ferncrest - (5301 Byte) 2011-7-19 周二, 11:55 (1439 reads)
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