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pirate
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作者：pirate 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Guggenheim Partners首席投资官 斯科特•迈纳德 为英国《金融时报》撰稿 2011-05-24
1958年，哈佛大学经济学家约翰•肯尼思•加尔布雷斯(John Kenneth Galbraith)希望找到一个术语，描述那些人们广泛持有、道理上说得通却存在本质缺陷的观点。在定义这些广为传播的错误观念时，他写道，“今后我会把这些观点称为传统智慧。”
作为一名资产管理人，我向来把传统智慧看作是通往糟糕投资的最可靠途径。我们甚至可以把华尔街的那句老话改成：牛市能赚钱，熊市能赚钱，但传统智慧却会让你惨遭宰割。共识观点往往意味着需要反向操作。
最近我留意到，围绕美联储(Fed)被称作二次定量宽松(QE2)的资产购买项目即将到期引发的集体思考已经到了关键阶段。在美联储资产负债表于两年半内增长了两倍之后，传统智慧认为，定量宽松时代现在应该让位于通货膨胀时代。因此，人们的定论是，美国利率将会上调，债券将明显走弱。
虽然我承认利率有可能上调，但我并不像大多数人那样，认为催化剂是QE2的到期。事实上，美国的利率应当会在较长时期内保持在历史低位窄幅波动。令我惊讶的是，痴迷于QE2的市场观察人士，绝大多数都很快就否定了QE3的可能性。
需要证据的话，请看一下泰勒规则(Taylor Rule)——美联储据以制作模型、以确定合适的联邦基金目标利率的经济公式。考虑到当前的失业和通胀水平，泰勒规则认为利率应为-1.65%，而这是不切实际的。鉴于美联储的目标利率已经接近于零，这意味着，在QE2结束后的某个时刻，本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)可能需要采取进一步的行动。至少，这意味在失业率降到7%以下（目前为9%）或核心通胀率上升一倍以前，美联储都不应上调利率。
鉴于农产品和能源价格大幅下滑，延长低利率政策乃至启动QE3有了更充分的理由。倘若如伯南克所料，食品和能源价格的压力是暂时的，那么通胀预期到今年年底可能会得到缓解。通胀率的回落，肯定会让QE3风险与回报的取舍对美联储主席更有吸引力。
伯南克甘于承受QE3政治后果的动机会是什么？与QE1和QE2相同，即刺激经济增长以促进就业回暖。如果经济增长停滞，这就会成为美联储主席的主要动机。展望未来，2011年减税措施到期及政府赤字削减项目（最早可能于2012年生效），将对经济增长构成实际障碍。除此之外的一个事实是，本轮商业周期的扩张阶段可能将在2012-13年宣告结束，接下来我们将面对严重的经济低迷，甚至可能是另一场衰退。当然，除非美联储再次祭出它的货币万灵丹。正因为此，我才相信6月份QE2的结束不过是暂时的停顿，以观察实体经济的情况。事实上，虽然伯南克在言辞中淡化美联储资产负债表的进一步扩张，但在最近的新闻发布会上，他却进行了谨慎处理，并未完全关上QE3的大门。
诚然，有人担心美联储的资产负债表可能已经过于臃肿，但这与日本以往的经验不符。美联储目前2.6万亿美元的资产负债表规模，约为美国国内生产总值(GDP)的18%。相比之下，日本央行(BoJ)资产负债表的规模约为日本GDP的30%。如果美联储要让所持资产的相对规模与日本央行相当，它还可以再实施价值1.8万亿美元的定量宽松。那也就是说，它还可以实行QE3、QE4和QE5（与QE2相同规模），才不过刚刚能达到日本今天的水平。如果美国经济增长停滞，伯南克这位通缩全能专家，可以将日本看作一个虽不完美却有参考价值的先例，启动更多定量宽松政策。
加尔布雷斯对传统智慧进行思想总结时说道，“传统智慧的终极敌人是环境”。2011年出人意料的环境也许是，在不确定性日益增长之际，随着美国国债和固定收益证券上扬，美国的利率进一步走低。展望未来，如果价格压力缓解，就业复苏依然缓慢，财政逆境加剧，那么伯南克也许就为再次开动印钞机找到了一个令人信服的理由。接下来，就像蹩脚的好莱坞电影系列片一样，我们可能就要开始谈论QE1和QE2的续集了。换言之，定量宽松没有死，它可能只是在蛰伏。
本文作者是Guggenheim Partners首席投资官
译者/邢嵬
本文的网址：https://www.ftchinese.com/story/001038737
Like the villain in a bad film, QE2 is not quite dead yet
By Scott Minerd
In 1958, Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith was looking for a term to describe ideas that were commonly held, intellectually accessible, and yet fundamentally flawed. To define such widely spread misconceptions, Galbraith wrote: “I shall refer to these ideas henceforth as the conventional wisdom.”
As an asset manager, I have come to view conventional wisdom as the surest path to investment underperformance. One might even amend the old Wall Street saying to read: bulls make money, bears make money, but conventional wisdom gets slaughtered. Consensus opinion is generally a sign to get on the other side of the trade.
Recently, I have noticed a critical mass of groupthink growing round the expiration of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programme, dubbed QE2. After tripling its balance sheet in two and-a-half years, the conventional wisdom is that the era of quantitative easing should now give way to the era of inflation. As a result, the foregone conclusion is that US interest rates will rise and bonds will underperform significantly.
While I acknowledge the potential for rising rates, I don’t think the expiration of QE2 is the catalyst that most believe it to be. In fact, US rates should remain range-bound at historically low levels for an extended period. I find it surprising how the majority of market watchers, lost in the obsession with QE2’s expiration, have so quickly dismissed the possibility of QE3.
As evidence, consider the Taylor Rule, an economic formula that the Federal Reserve uses to model the appropriate Fed funds target interest rate. Given the current levels of unemployment and inflation, the Taylor Rule says the rate should be negative 1.65 per cent, which is not practical. With the Fed’s target rate already at the zero bound, this suggests Mr Bernanke may need to take further action at some point after QE2 expires. At a minimum, it means the Fed should refrain from any rate increases until such a time that unemployment drops below 7 per cent (from 9 per cent currently) or core inflation more than doubles.
The case for extended low rates and possibly even QE3 grows stronger given the sharp declines in agriculture and energy prices. If price pressures from food and energy prove transitory, as Mr Bernanke predicts, then inflationary expectations are likely to ease by the end of the year. A decline in inflation would certainly make the risk/reward trade-off for QE3 more attractive to the Fed chairman.
What would be Mr Bernanke’s motivation to endure the political fallout of QE3? The same motivation for QE1 and QE2: namely, stimulating growth to help employment recover. If economic growth stalls, this will become the chairman’s primary motivation. Looking ahead, the expiration of tax cuts in 2011 and a government deficit reduction programme (likely to take effect as early as 2012) will present real headwinds to growth. l<x>ayer on top of that the fact that 2012-13 would probably be the end of the expansionary portion of the business cycle, and what is left is a recipe for a serious economic slowdown or possibly even another recession. Unless, of course, the Fed serves up more of its monetary elixir, which is why I believe the end of QE2 in June is nothing more than a pause to watch what happens in the real economy. In fact, despite his rhetoric downplaying any further expansion of its balance sheet, Bernanke was careful in his press conference not to close the door entirely on QE3.
To be sure, there are fears that the balance sheet of the Fed may be too large already, but this does not square with the experience of Japan. At $2,600bn, the Fed balance sheet represents approximately 18 per cent of US gross domestic product. By comparison, the balance sheet of the Bank of Japan equals approximately 30 per cent of Japanese GDP. If the Fed were to hold as many assets on a relative basis, it could conduct another $1,800bn worth of quantitative easing. That would amount to QE3, QE4, and QE5 (at the same size as QE2) just to get to where Japan is today. If US economic growth stalls, Mr Bernanke, an expert in all things deflationary, could view Japan as an imperfect but relevant precedent for further quantitative easing.
In his concluding thoughts about conventional wisdom, Mr Galbraith said that “the ultimate enemy of conventional wisdom is circumstance”. The surprise circumstance in 2011 may be lower rates as US Treasuries and fixed income securities rally in the midst of growing uncertainty. Further down the road, if price pressures moderate, employment remains slow to recover, and fiscal headwinds mount, then Bernanke may find a compelling reason to fire up the printing presses once again. Then, just like a bad Hollywood film series, we may end up talking about a sequel to QE1 and QE2. In other words, quantitative easing is not dead; it may just be slumbering.
Scott Minerd is chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners
作者：pirate 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [转帖]蛰伏中的QE3(附英文版) -- pirate - (6814 Byte) 2011-5-24 周二, 18:49 (2293 reads)
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