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 [转帖]Stress Test 101: How Will the Banks Do? |
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gigilang
头衔: 海归中校
声望: 博导
性别: 
加入时间: 2008/05/01
文章: 1377
来自: usa
海归分: 43104
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作者：gigilang 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Regulators are expected to finally deliver their assessment of the health of the nation's 19 largest financial firms on Thursday. Here's what you need to know.
1. JPMorgan Chase
Total assets: $2.17 trillion
TARP money received: $25 billion
2008 results: $5.6 billion in profits
Stock performance: -19.8%*
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon was showered with praise last year as the company scored two major acquisitions -- Bear Stearns and thrift giant Washington Mutual -- and managed to stay profitable while its peers stumbled. But even as the firm stands by its "fortress balance sheet", what troubles some is the company's massive exposure to consumer-related areas such as credit cards. That division posted a loss in the first quarter amid rising credit losses.
total assets: $1.95 trillion
TARP money received: $50 billion
2008 results: $18.7 billion in losses
Stock performance: -83%*
Would it really be surprising if Citigroup needed more money as a result of the stress tests? The New York City-based bank has already taken in $50 billion in government assistance. And before it reported a surprise first-quarter profit, it posted a staggering loss of $28 billion over the previous 18 months. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Citigroup executives have already been informed that the bank may have to raise even more capital. And odds are that would come from taxpayers, who will own more than a third of the bank once the government converts preferred shares it owns to common stock.
3. Bank of America
Total assets: $1.82 trillion
TARP money received: $45 billion
2008 results: $2.56 billion in profits
Stock performance: -73.6%*
Had it not been for Merrill Lynch, many wonder if Bank of America would be in much better position today. The deal required the government to cough up an additional $20 billion in government assistance, and cost CEO Ken Lewis his role as chairman. Many analysts believe the nation's largest consumer bank by deposits may have to raise additional capital. Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Paul Miller has suggested that BofA might be best served by converting $27 billion of government preferred shares into common stock.
4. Wells Fargo
Total assets: $1.31 trillion
TARP money received: $25 billion
2008 results: $2.56 billion in profits
Stock performance:-41.6%*
There has been no looking back for Wells Fargo since the company completed its purchase of the ailing regional giant Wachovia late last year. After recording a $2.6 billion loss as a result of the deal in the fourth quarter, profits at the San Francisco-based bank soared to record levels in the first quarter. Nevertheless, analysts like Matt O'Connor at Deutsche Bank worry that the company may be under pressure to raise capital -- especially if the downturn in the economy shows no sign of abating.
5. Goldman Sachs
Total assets: $885 billion
TARP money received: $10 billion
2008 results: $2.32 billion in profits
Stock performance: -16.7%
In the race to pay back TARP funds, Goldman Sachs is leading the pack. In April, the company raised $5 billion by selling stock at a time when fresh capital for the banking industry is scarce. One stumbling block to repayment, however, has been the stress test. Regulators want to be sure that firms like Goldman are strong enough to weather the current economic environment on their own. At the same time, regulators may be wondering about the consequences for the rest of the industry should Goldman find itself free of government restrictions.
6. Morgan Stanley
Total assets: $659 billion
TARP money received: $10 billion
2008 results: $1.59 billion in profits
Stock performance: -36.5%
While Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase publicly decry the terms of TARP, Morgan Stanley has kept a much lower profile, saying only that it would like to repay the money when appropriate. But there are signs the New York City-based firm is in good shape, despite taking a hit in its commercial real estate portfolio in the first quarter. Excluding the $10 billion it received from Treasury last fall, the company's Tier 1 capital ratio, a key measure used by regulators to measure a bank's ability to absorb losses, was a healthy 13% at the end of March. Morgan Stanley also slashed its dividend to 5 cents in a bid to conserve $1 billion annually.
7. MetLife
Total assets: $502 billion
TARP money received: none
2008 results: $3.08 billion in profits
Stock performance: -47%*
One of these things is not like the other. Chartered as a bank holding company but having refused taxpayer funds, insurer MetLife bears little resemblance, if any, to the other 18 companies that underwent the government's stress test. Analysts are perplexed as to how the government will value the company's assets or review its capital position. But Keefe, Bruyette & Woods' Fred Cannon notes that it's a good sign that the company turned down TARP funds in March. "[MetLife] would not have voluntarily made this declaration without a high degree of confidence about the stress test," he wrote.
8. PNC
Total assets: $291 billion
TARP money received: $7.6 billion
2008 results: $882 million in profits
Stock performance: -45.6%
Can you force a growing bank to take additional capital? Not a chance, PNC would argue. The Pittsburgh-based bank, which bought struggling National City last year, has enjoyed deposit growth in recent months, but it has also steadily built up its capital reserves. As of the end of March, both PNC's Tier 1 ratio and tangible common equity ratio, another key measure of a bank's ability to absorb losses, climbed about half a percentage point since late last year. But with PNC's non-performing asset to loan ratio nearly three times what it was a year ago, PNC may have no choice but to raise more capital.
9. U.S. Bancorp
Total assets: $267 billion
TARP money received: $6.6 billion
2008 results: $2.82 billion in profits
Stock: -46.1%*
U.S. Bancorp has had no trouble acquiring new business -- or all-too-precious capital for that matter. Since last fall, the Minneapolis-based lender's Tier 1 capital ratio has climbed from 8.5% to 10.9% as of the end of March. The $6.6 billion in taxpayer funds has helped, but so has the fact that the bank continues to earn healthy profits in a bleak economic climate. With numbers like that, it's hard to envision U.S. Bancorp failing its stress test.
10. Bank of New York Mellon
Total assets: $238 billion
TARP money received: $3 billion
2008 results: $1.39 billion in profits
Stock performance: -36.2%*
In the hierarchy of well-positioned firms on the stress test list, Bank of New York Mellon ranks pretty high up there. The company's Tier 1 capital ratio was a robust 11.2% at the end of the first quarter- not including the $3 billion it received from the government. The bank has also taken steps to bolster its capital position by slashing its dividend 63%, a move the company said would save $700 million a year and help it pay back TARP funds.
11. GMAC
Total assets: $189 billion
TARP money received: $6 billion
2008 results: $1.9 billion in profits
Stock performance: N/A
When the government agreed to a $6 billion infusion for privately held GMAC late last year, it was a godsend for the beleaguered auto finance firm. But conditions have hardly improved since then. General Motors, which owns a significant stake of GMAC along with private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. At the same time, domestic auto sales remain a fraction of what they were just a year ago. The company recently said it would resume making loans to people without top credit scores, but it remains to be seen if those efforts will help GMAC get back on track.
12. SunTrust
Total assets: $189 billion
TARP money received: $4.85 billion
2008 results: $747 million in profits
Stock performance: -69.5%*
Should regulators deem SunTrust in need of more TARP funds, it wouldn't be the first time that the Atlanta-based lender went back to the trough for more capital. SunTrust was one of the first banks to get taxpayer funds after issuing $3.5 billion of preferred shares to the Treasury in mid-November. About a month later, it followed that up by selling another chunk of shares worth $1.35 billion, citing an increasingly uncertain economic outlook. SunTrust executives, however, have said recently they want to pay back the money. So do they need the money or not?
作者：gigilang 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [转帖]Stress Test 101: How Will the Banks Do? -- gigilang - (8657 Byte) 2009-5-04 周一, 23:44 (1110 reads)
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