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 [转帖] disaster is coming to Europe soon |
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parisparis
头衔: 海归少将
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2004/09/04
文章: 1996
海归分: 276207
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作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
What a great show in 2009!
The force that destroyed the German banking system in 1929 was not from the Wall Street stock market... it came from Austria...
Europe Needs to Act on East Europe Bank Exposure, Nomura Says
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By Agnes Lovasz
Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- European governments, the European Union and international financial organizations need to act fast on risks stemming form banks’ exposure in the eastern part of the continent to avert an escalation of the credit crisis, Nomura Holdings Inc. said.
East European countries are struggling to refinance foreign- currency loans taken out by borrowers during years of prosperity through 2007, when economic growth averaged at more than 5 percent. The International Monetary Fund, which has bailed out Latvia, Hungary, Serbia, Ukraine and Belarus, warned on Jan. 28 that bank losses may widen as “shocks are transmitted between mature and emerging market banking systems.”
“Swift action is needed to restore confidence and prevent trouble” to financial and economic stability in the euro region and emerging Europe, said Peter Attard Montalto, an emerging markets economist at Nomura International in London. “Any move should be quick. The situation has begun to decline more rapidly since the end of last year and there is risk that any action may come too late.”
As companies and consumers have sought cheap loans, denominated mainly in euros and Swiss francs, external liabilities reached about 100 percent of gross domestic product in Poland and the Czech Republic and almost twice the national output in Hungary, according to figures compiled by Nomura.
Banks’ Exposure
Euro region banks’ exposure totals $1.25 trillion in the region, and including U.K., Swedish and Swiss banks’ liabilities it pushes the figure to $1.45 trillion, Nomura said, citing figures from the basel, Switzerland-based Bank of International Settlements.
“We find the absolute levels and some of the risks worrying,” wrote Montalto. There’s “a serious risk that these exposures will have grave consequences for the central and east European economies themselves as well as for the European banks that hold the ultimate risk.”
Non-performing loans in the region rose to 8 percent, from 5 percent through last year, and Standard & Poor’s has forecast they may top 25 percent on average.
The risks stemming from the level of exposure are aggravated by the slump in currencies in the region and the increasing default risks on repayments as more workers lose their jobs and companies scale back production and pay, Montalto wrote. The region will have a recession this year as exports collapse, the IMF has said.
‘Upside Risks’
The “upside risks” to bad loans are “very large” as wages are falling and unemployment rising, Montalto said.
A group of six banks, including Italy’s UniCredit SpA and Austria’s Raiffeisen International Bank Holding AG, have pressed the European Union to organize financial aid for countries on its eastern fringes like Romania and Ukraine.
Austrian banks alone have lent 230 billion euros ($294 billion) in the region, equal to about 80 percent of the country’s GDP, according to data compiled by the Bank for International Settlements.
The banks, which also include Italy’s Intesa SanPaolo SpA, Austria’s Erste Group Bank AG, Societe Generale SA of France and KBC Groep NV in Belgium, requested a 12-point assistance program for the region ranging from foreign-exchange loans for banks to guarantees for customer deposits from organizations such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, according to a Dec. 1 letter sent to the European Commission.
“There does not currently seem to be a consensus about a solution, with opinion split on whether any bailout should be at the EU or member-state level and where funding could come from,” Montalto said. “With continued weakness in currencies in the region and a worsening economic picture, this issue is not going to go away on its own.”
The EBRD, the World bank and euro-area governments should provide capital to banks, Montalto wrote. The EBRD is in talks about providing financial support to OTP Bank Nyrt., Hungary’s largest bank.
To contact the reporter on this story: Agnes Lovasz in London at [email protected]
Last Updated: February 13, 2009 10:18 EST
作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [转帖] disaster is coming to Europe soon -- parisparis - (4408 Byte) 2009-2-16 周一, 13:34 (1157 reads)
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