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 Regarding Commodities, I don't agree with Jack |
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theoretical
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作者：theoretical 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
In fact, I sense a big bull market for commodities in 2009 to 2012. Why? because I think current deflation is a freaking joke. The price did not really reflect the demands, it only reflected the progress of deleveraging. To understand the full scale of the coming train wrack, we need to focus on following issues:
1. America's debt
2. Unfunded Liabilities
3. Derivatives
4. Action of government
Basing on these, I don't see this deflation will last longer than late 2009. More of less, I see inflationary depression, not so called staginflation will hit us soon. By no means, I am true economist. Nevertheless, a little bit common sense helped me to avoid this house bubble. So, this will be my vision for next 4 yrs:
As "new" money flooded the market and false hope of O8, we will see stock market begin to improve from late Dec.2008 or early Jan.2009, it will touch 200EMA this time. This is the so called "mother of the all rallies". So, don't short market heavily during this time. But the truth will surface, the stock market rally won't last too long, we may see S&P touch 600 in 2009, and 465 ( which is 1994 suport) in 2010. On the other side, inflation will start, money will flee to basic commodities, including food, oil, water etc. So, there is no need to jump on commodities right now since the deleveraging is still going on.
Why do we buy gold bullion and guns? As inflationary depression goes on, I don't have confidence for any social system, I don't see world peace still intact. thus, just in case........
Enjoy whatever the happy hour you have right now, it won't be so much left later on. Stay close to your family and loved ones, we can live without stock market, but we can;t live without them.
作者：theoretical 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 Regarding Commodities, I don't agree with Jack -- theoretical - (1773 Byte) 2008-11-30 周日, 00:50 (1755 reads)
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